Correlation of IPO Grading and Stock Performance

Greetings,

Before Jan 1, there was euphoria all around. Poeple would look at grey market premium and apply for IPO. I am trying to look at one other perspective. IPO gradings.

Let's see the ratings given by one of the established agencies, ICRA. It's not ICRA. For that matter, you can do similar simple comparisons for scrips graded by CARE / Fitch etc.

The first pick has to be Rel Power, graded 4 but everyone saw what happened to the scrip. Now, just compare it to the opposite say Allied Computers, graded 1 by the same agency but the stock is almost 3 times above it's issue price. Even in today's market, it is up 2%. See more for yourself. Check Ankit Metal & Power ..rated a grade 1 giving 100%+ returns over it's issue price.

One can certainly argue that in those times, market was favorable and it's not fair to compare the issues graded at different times in different market conditions. Let's try to compare the recent 2. J Kumar (rating 2) and Rel Power (rating 4). As checked around 2:30 PM today on MoneyControl, J Kumar is trading at 107, 2.7% below the issue price of 110. Rel Power is trading at 413.50, 8% below it's issue price of 450. 413 price is also because of the news of Bonus shares.

Now, a thought comes to my mind is that either all of these grading companies need to be graded or market is doing something fishy. ;-) With my limited knowledge, I am no brainer to judge this.

~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal

I've got a decision to make!!

Greetings,

Apologies for being off for so many days, I was busy playing with my sweet little daughter. When I go back home from work, her cute smile always drag me away from my laptop just to cuddle with her, spend time with her. Even in this simple situation of life, I made a decision to spend time with my lovely daughter than blogging. Now, I found some time so I thought I may share what I learned in last few days.

In our personal and professional lives, we make so many decisions; small..big..simple..difficult. I always believed that decisions using gut-feel are the best ones but still I ponder there must be someone in the management world who would have thought about step by step way of making decisions. Then, I bumped onto a book from Harvard Press. I loved the simplicity in which they have explained their 5 step (They say 5, I say 6 ;-) process for effective decision making. I just wish to share the snippet here without taking away from you the joy of reading the book.

Step 1 - Set the right context
* The same words can give different meaning, if put in different context. So, choose the right people to create the context of the problem.
* Agree on the approach to make the decision. Typical approaches are like Consensus, Majority, Boss's Verdict etc.
* Set the rule for open-minded Inquiry Method rather than Advocacy for a particular outcome.

Step 2 - Frame the problem
* Framing the problem correctly to yourself or others involved in decision-making is half-won battle.
* Some people are always biased towards certain outcome, whatever the problem is, so they may miss the original issue altogether.

Step 3 - Find the alternatives
* If you had only one option, you would not be reading this at all. The problem is that we always have many options and we need to choose the best of them. If don't have alternatives, find them because you may be missing something.
* Brainstorm, think creatively, this laterally..do whatever but find the alternatives.
* Now, reduce all those alternatives to a manageable set; which seems feasible and genuine.

Step 4 - Evaluate the alternatives
* Go through each of the alternatives found to see which will give you maximum benefit.
* There are number of methods available - Net Present Value, Prioritization Matrix, Trade-Off table, Decision Tree. Use anyone of them based on problem in context.

Step 5 - Make the decision
* Different people might find one alternative to be better than other. Typically, you may removed many options but now may have left with 2-3 only. Which one to choose NOW? I still have options ;-(
* Management world again suggest 3 techniques - Catchball, Point-Counterpoint, Intellectual Watchdog.

After you have made the decision, it is important to communicate the same to right set of people explaining the rationale behind the choice of the decision made. Go on the read the very potent and practical book from Harvard. You may buy it from Amazon or Harvard? Oh...another decision to make ;-)

What did you decide today?
~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal