Dec 28, 2007

Which is better? Former or latter.

Hi,

I just got this on my email and felt like sharing here.

Dad used to give us a measly Rs. 20/- per month,in that we were not only able to eat stomachs fill,but we were able to save too!! Now we earn a sum of 20K, we have no idea where it goes, let alone saving it!!
Which is better, the former or the latter?

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6 subjects per year, 6 different teachers!One project since we joined and just one manager!!
Which is better, the former or the latter?

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We used to make notes;we used to study for ranks! Now we scan through our mails;we struggle for our ratings!!!
Which is better, the former or the latter?

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We have still not forgotten the people in the next section! Now we don't even know who sits in the next cubicle!!!
Which is better, the former or the latter?

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After getting back from a tiring play,we used to do our home work! Now who knows/cares about home;all we do is just work!
Which is better, the former or the latter?

------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -

We knew our history and economics!!Now let alone reading books,we don't even catch up with the daily news!
Which is better, the former or the latter?

------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -

We had an aim in life;behind our backs we had our teachers!!Now we have no idea about the future nor do we find anyone who would tell us anything!
Which is better, the former or the latter?

Think about it.
~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal

Dec 12, 2007

SAVE the Dollar!!

Greetings,

I will be astonished if somebody has not heard about Sub Prime issue in US. But is it really the bad mortgage/loans that people need to worry about? I think there's more to it and it could get even worse. The credit crunch, the weakening economy, dollar slide in addition to the sub prime woes add more to the belief that US might be ready for recession. Some people are not ready to buy-in the recession compleletly but nobody is denying the possibility either.

Fed has resorted to the rate cuts to save the markets and infuse more liquidity into the market but if the dollar slide continues, Fed may even be forced to instead increase the rates even when recession lingers around the corner. Fed needs to balance the both.

YTD, Dollar as a currency has fallen significantly. Exporters to US, who did have contracts in USD have taken the major hits. The impact can be very painfully seen in the stock prices of Indian IT companies and other exporters as Indian Rupee has appreciated almost 15% against the dollar in this year. Airbus has already called Dollar's slide as *life-threatening*.

The decline in Dollar is led not only by economic weakness in US but there's more to it. The biggest problem with Dollar is that it has been the hegemonic currency for nearly 50 years; it sort of replaced Gold to become the common money for trade across the globe. It's not that dollar would lose it's place and countries would resort to some other currency as world's reserve currency. There are costs associated with it and is very difficult to choose any ONE currency; which could promise to give similar solidarity for decades as Dollar did. However, Euro and China's Yuan seems to be next best contenders. But let's see what could be leading to this threatening decline...

a. Dollar seemed to have gained the reputation of being stable currency for past many decades. Also, there was greater confidence of being well-regulated and transparent market in US. With that conviction gone now, net capital inflows to America seemed to have washed away.

b. Dollar is also effected by the consumer's sense of crisis leading to the all-time high speculative selling of dollars. This is one of the recent comments by Morgan Stanley's economist.

c. Central banks for many countries have kept their foreign-exchange reserves in the dollars. China alone seemed to have close to $1.4 trillion in reserves followed by Japan with $1 trillion. Imagine what can happen to dollar if all these countries think about cutting their losses and dump their dollar reserves.

d. Many countries, more importantly Gulf countries had been asked to peg their currencies by virtue of buying dollars. This would not let the Gulf currencies appreciate and US would still been able to buy the OIL in almost same price for years. But now, with dollar weakening, Gulf countries are finding it hard to curb their inflation and they would also like to change their exchange-rates; especially those countries whose currency is pegged against a basket rather than dollar alone.

So, there's more to dollar-decline than mere currency depreciation. I think American policy makers are smart enough not to let the dollar crash. I also think that other countries would also do their jobs to help the American's policy makers.

Outcry remains same...SAVE the Dollar!!
~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal

Dec 4, 2007

Investors enjoy IPO Blitzkrieg

Greetings once again. Apologies that I was away for some time but it was festival season in India and it is the best time to invest in yourself and your family.

Hmm...talking about investments!! For last few years, Indian stock markets have seen blitzkrieg. If we just go by 2006's data,
India had the 8th largest volume of IPOs in the world with Indian companies raising US$ 7.23 billion in the domestic stock markets. 2007 data is yet to be released but it's anybody guess that 2007 will be bigger and better than the previous one. As per NSE website, in 2006, 73 companies raise funds through primary market by launching the IPOs and in 2007, 86 companies have already raised funds and we still have one full month to go.

Raising money is good for business growth, expansion and diversification. But in recent past, it seems to me that some IPOs are being filed just to raise money for the promoters and the primary stakeholders. It seems to be easiest route to take some portion of the company to the public, dilute the promoter's stake and in result, hefty cash flows in to the promoter's bank accounts. FIIs, Corporates and even retail investors have such a frenzy over the recent IPOs that companies have been asking for higher valuations and still the issues are getting subscribed 30+ times.

One of the classic example seems to be much touted Reliance Power IPO from ADAG group. Their company Reliance Energy is already bidding for good number of projects, sitting pretty on investments by retail, FII and DII investors, holding on to huge cash reserves of Rs 9000 crore. God knows why they wish to rush to stock markets once again to raise Rs 2 billion so early. They could raise this money later as well when they will have visibility into their UMPP projects, which seems to be sole motive of Reliance Power. I really don't know what is it that they can't do within Reliance Energy that they want to create another arm Reliance Power when the UMPP leg hasn't even started their operations. Typically, a company creates separate arm when the arm has done enough and calls to be a separate entity. Now a days, companies live 2-3 years ahead in future.

Whatever, IPO market remains hot. Frenzy will continue to be seen among all kind of investors for all kind of IPOs. Keep raising chunks for yourself and help few Indians to feature on the "Forbe's Richest people in World" list.

~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal
PS - I will be investing in BGR Energy even though asking price seems beyond valuations ;-)

Nov 5, 2007

It's party time. Time to buy Gift.

Greetings,

Let me ask you a simple question. How many parties have you attended in last 1 month? How many gifts have you given or received in recent months?


Our culture has evolved in recent years. If we call our culture a party culture now, I won't be too wrong. We always keep our eyes and ears open to identify a cause for party, find a reason to buy a gift. I envy the owners of Archies, Hanung (btw, have you sen Hanung scrip touching new highs?) etc. Maybe, it's our feeble attempt to find bit of happiness, although fake, in today's stressful times.

Even in late 90s, in *higher middle class families* if I may use this word, celebrating a birthday used to mean visitng gurudwara, going to school wearing anything but uniform with a pack of toffees given by mother. Bit more fancied families used to have some party with pastries, pakoras, rasna etc and probably take some pics using their Yashica or Kodak camera.

Now, even families with low incomes will celebrate the birthday like a wedding. Cards will be printed, invitations will be sent, return gifts will be bought. Either a caterer is arranged or party will arranged at McDonald, Papa John's or any lovely restaurant in the city but not home. If the family doesn't have a camcorder, a video guy will also be arranged.
For next few days, same video will be posted on YouTube, pics will be put on Flickr. Do you wish to add some more???

There are more days to celebrate and give/take gifts. Na na..I am not saying that population has increased and we have birthdays and anniversary days. Society and business have come together to find more days like Father's Day, Mother's day, Brother's Day, Sister's Day, Mother-in-law's day, teacher's day, engineer's day..the list is endless. If you are arduous enough to amke the list, you will find that the annual calendar falls short to accommodate all these days.


Ain't this blog writer wasting time writing this scrap? Go man, have a party but before that buy a gift!!
~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal

Nov 4, 2007

Shopping Trends in Today's India

Festival Greetings,

It's the festival season in India and Divali is on Nov 9. The papers are full of advertisments, markets are full of hoardings, SALE banners are seen everywhere. Every company wishes to see their profit / revenue charts going up for this month expecting higher sales. I also went to the market hoping the surge in number of visitors but I don't think I found anything special. Every weekend, the market is as much flooded as I saw this weekend.

I observe this as just one of the indicators of the changing lifestyle of our society. Earlier, people used to wait for Divali to buy the car, music system, TV, some gold or whatever. Now, people don't wait for this festival season to go out with their shopping lists. In my opinion, there are many reasons for this change.

+ First and foremost, many companies run their SALEs almost entire year. See Koutons for example.
+ Second, companies have stopped giving huge cash discounts as we had witnessed earlier. Now, the offers are more like "Buy 1, Get 1 free. ", "But X, Get Y free", "But X, Get N% on Y". The intent is to clear the inventory.
+ Third, I think companies also don't wish to focus their sales over one month; but they would like proportionate sales across the year. I read the similar remarks by a Samsung official as well.
+ Lastly, a view from the buyer's side and not seller's. Today's buyer don't plan their wish list like our parents used to do. They just see the ad, or see the same at somebody's place and intend to have it in their home the next day.

People would buy a thing when they want and not just wait for the festival season to come.
~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal

Nov 3, 2007

Consumerism in India

In India, times have really changed and I am no brainer to judge whether it is for good or bad. The west has already witnessed this starting early 90's till date and now people in US are already talking about low consumer spending and few even use the word "recession". India is witnessing a new wave of consumerism. During last 2-3 years, everyone in India must have witnessed the sudden surge in the number of the malls, factory outlets, number of brands, number of advertisements promoting those brands and more importantly number of people visiting those malls and buying those brands.

Till mid 90s, I don't think the youth were too excited by brands. Many were not even aware of the brands. I, for one, was quite happy when my mother bought me pair of NewPort jeans. I don't know what that brand was but I was happy to have a pair of jeans. In late 90s, i think youth started fancied about clothes. With the start of this century, I think most were conscious about brands. Lee, Levis, UCB, Freelook etc. become the fancied brands. Now, youth wanted a pair of lee jeans and not just jeans.

Similarly, everybody wanted to put latest electronics, 21 in tv is not good enough anymore, people want 29 in flat and that too plasma. Everyone wants iPod, laptop and not just desktops. People, even the 50+ years old, fancy flashing the latest Nokia N-series phone even though all they would use it for is phone calls and maybe SMSing. Everyone will eat out at least a week. Could you fancy eating out once a week even in late 90s? Everyone will go out for a movie paying 150 bucks per person and they will also buy popcorn which comes for 50+ Rs in cinemas but available outside for 10 Rs. There are similar observations you can easily make in our changing times.

So many questions come to my mind. Are people earning those many bucks to spend freely? Is it money that has become cheaper or people perspire less while earning that money or mindset has changed from "save money for old age and children" to "enjoy your life"? There are many more questions like these. I know for sure everyone would have their own answers to these questions.

Life is full of questions, the journey to death is all about finding answers to those questions.

~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal

Oct 25, 2007

Daam To Na De Sakoon

Sat Sri Akal (Greetings in Punjabi Language)

I chose to write the salutation in Punjabi today as I have something to write about Sikh culture. I recently bought a CD by Bhai Sadhu Singh which had a Shabad - "Daam To Na De Sakoon", which I used to listen when I was in my early teens. My father used to play this a lot. I never understood the depth of this Shabad at that time. Now, I DO.

If one listens to the sacrifices made by Sri Guru Gobind Singh Ji as recited beautifully by Sadhu Singh ji, it's very difficult to stop oneself having tears in your eyes and bow down with deep respect to the majestic tenth Guru of sikhs. You may listen here http://music.punjabcentral.com/album/?album=3382&page=1&sort=4

In today's world, I cannot see anyone making those kind of sacrifices. Sacrifice of both parents, sacrifice of 2 elder sons fighting the battle of Chamkaur Sahib, sacrifice of 2 younder sons being buried alive in a wall at Sirhind.

Some one said such deep words about Guru Gobind Singh Ji

Qila chorr ghar tak bhi apna lutaya, bachpan mein apne pita ko kataya,
Akela hi firta raha woh janglon mein, Woh bharat pe aashiq fida ho raha hai.

When Guruji's 2 sons and mother lost their way and disciples asked to trace them, Guruji said

...Bichhar gaye sri mata bache pyare,
...The ghabraye sikh aa hazoori pyare;
...Kya fikar karte ho ai jaan nisaro,
...Yeh un bachon ka imtihan ho raha hai.

Foreseeing battle for day ahead, Guru ji said about two elder sons,

...Katayoonga kal tak yeh baaki ke jaakar,
...Akela reh jayoonga ghar ko lutakar;
...Kabhi bete waare kabhi waara walid,
...Yeh kishton se karza ada ho raha hai.

In Deep Respect.
~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal

Oct 17, 2007

Future is DARK

Greetings,

Amidst the IT outsourcing blitzkreig across the world, I contribute my cents working for a company in India. With 8+ years in this industry, i can't call myself a veteran but seasoned enough to observe and understand the industry trends and outlook.

When i meet my friends and/or colleagues over weekends and tea breaks, typically the conversation starts with "how and what they are doing". 9 times of 10, I will hear *kat rahi hai* (Just passing time) or "vehla hoon bhaaji" (I am idle). After that, for next 20-30 mins, we will keep jabbering about
+ This guy switched N jobs
+ That guy got N% raise
+ ABC bought a flat and made heck of money
+ How liquidity in indian stock market creating new bubble.
+ ABC quit because of onsite aspiration
+ Manager of ABC doesnt give good raise.

+ How this company is making me do a job much below my potential
.............and so on.


Well, the point I wish to make is that in this entire hoopla, hardly anybody is *working* in true sense. At the risk of being killed by Fixed Bid project teams, I can say that Most are under-utilized, have nothing much to do but run their minds scheming about second/third source of income. Many people actually use the company's telephones to run their business, use the company's network to trade on stock exchange or look ot propert portals etc.

People don't have enough work. If they have the work, mostly it's work much below the man's potential (which was judged at the time of hiring). In the end, fix this, document that, send report. Period.

Now, the (b)million dollar question is that where is this industry heading? I have couple of ideas but let's put that on hold for next blog of mine.

5 Masteries of Family Wisdom

Now that I have read this new book by Robin Sharma. I also wanted to do exactly the same what Julian did -- Share the wisdom or knowledge, which I have gathered by reading it, with everybody.

The book is all about restructuring your thoughts to focus on the Things that really count in your life. *Most* will agree that the most important thing in life is FAMILY. This book gives you 5 principles that you can adopt in your life to bring out the best in your family.

Mastery 1 - Leadership in life begins with leadership at home.
+ Build a vision for your family.

+ Commit it to the paper.
+ Discuss with your family; get their buy in.
+ Make your action plan and execute it.

Mastery 2 - Don't scold the children. Mould the leader within.
+ Create human moments, then live them.
+ Praise the kids on jobs well done.
+ Stop condemning, start commending because good parents reward excellent failures.
+ Build the trust
...+ Keep your promises
...+ Be meticulous with your words
...+ Be an aggressive listener
...+ Be fanatically honest with your kids. Well, this doesnt mean you have to be rude to them.

Mastery 3 - Focus your child on greatness, not weakness.
+ Know thyself. The purpose of life is to have life of purpose.

+ Be a specialist. Be jack of as many things but be master of atleast one.
+ Bring special strengths and true talents out.
...+ Envision daily. Sit for 5 mins; your eys closed; try to visualize what change you wish to see.
...+ Set goals weekly
...+ Walk with giants. Read biographies, watch documentaries, visit places that had great impact on this world.
...+ Give graciously. What you gives; returns manifold.

Mastery 4 - To be an excellent parent, Be an excellent person.
+ Self renewal
...+ Rise early. I know many don't like it. But try waking it up at 5am (okay 6..) one day, you will feel top of the world.
...+ Keep a journal. Pen down your important life events. Do deep thinking on them.
...+ Take sabbatical. It's not selfish to find time for yourself. You need some private time.
...+ Care for your temple i.e. body. More fit is your body; more energy you will have.

Master 5 - Gift your child immortality through the gift of legacy.
+ Do one thing in your life that your kid can look upto.

Oct 10, 2007

Monk, Ferrari & Sivana

I recently read another, so-called, self-help book. It is called The Family Wisdom.

I don't really grasp what all these self-help authors are trying to achieve in their lives. First, there are so many of them. Second, every alternate book seems to be trying to tell you the same. Only one thing changes -- the story or the tale of the fable. Even authors from HBS has turned to this story telling exercise. If you don't know what I am talking about, do read Our iceberg is melting.

Anyway, I am not here to scold these guys. They are doing good job in telling stories and minting hell lot of money by having *one monk travelled to India and publish many books*. What I wish to talk about is story-telling business.

I think the entire self-help business is turning out to be - "I am a better story-teller". There are 2 key elements in these stories. It has to be simpler (like a children story) and it has to be interesting (like a fiction).

I think it is working like a charm as proven by the fact that all these books are selling like hot cakes across the world. There are 2 reasons to this..
1. Life, professional or personal, is getting complex day by day. Last thing they want is some heavily worded, complex dose of discourse to show them a way to come out of the grind.
2. People like stories.

Stories are fun. Stories are touchy. People tend to link themselves to one of the characters in the story. That helps people to remember the story for long. How may stories do you remember that you read in your childhood? Now, compare that to number of theorems, formulas, geography lessons. Bingo!! You GOT it.

Now, if someone comes across some problem; it is intuitive for human mind to link that to the knowledge base he has already acquired through previous learnings. If a person remembers a story, probability is very high that he would also remember "how that character in that story handled that situation".

So, in nutshell, all these authors, who are evidently more close to basic human needs are making hell of money by telling stories to those, who have somehow got rapidly booted in complex, high flyer lifestyle, but still found themselves unhappy.

--Navjot Singh Sohanpal

Sep 23, 2007

Promises of Politicians??

Greetings,

It seems to have become an habit of politicians to make promises; without even thinking whether they will be able to fulfill them or not? How long would they need to fulfill this? Can't solely blame on the politicians; they do what they are good at but public needs to ask the right questions.

Recently, Mr Sukhbir Badal announces so many things in a single go that even factory of hajmola won't be enough to digest that. Metro Rail, World Class air ports, AC bus stands and buses, international lifestyle. What not..everything has been offered by Mr. Badal. The biggest irnoy is that all these promises are made just 5 days ahead of MC elections.

Badal Sarkar has already spent more than 4000+ crore. The plan is to invest 5000+ crore on Jalandhar. Did he ever think where would he arrange the funds from to do what he just said? I like the money being spent on development of much needed infrastructure but the public needs to see the strategic plans as to how this money will be raised, how will it be spent, when will it be spent. Money just doesnt keep flowing in from World Bank, IMF, Central Govt etc. If you really wish to scale well, you got to learn how to run your state with your own resources.

But anyway, those talks are already over. WHY? Elections are over. There are more important things to do..Captain, Chahal, Dera, Virk..list goes on.

~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal


History Repeats itself!!

Greetings,

During our history classes, most of us must have read about Zamindar system, where one person would control lands and lives of so many people and keep them as bonded labour. (Bandhuya Mazdoor in Hindi). Remember how all of us used to abhor that.

I reckon that hisotry is going to repeat itself. All biggies in India Inc are trying to take as much as they can out of Retail Pie. Reliance, Bharti, Future..you name it. Lets see how are they trying to do it.
Step 1 - Source directly from farmers. Reduce procurement cost. Use own inventory and distribution to be cost effective. Pass on margins to consumer.

Step 2 - Produce themselves. Self farming/contract farming. This will improve their margins even more.

Guess what? If this happens; which i believe will happen in 5 years time. Zamindar system will be back again..though in sophisticated manner. The transformation will go full cycle from bonded labour -> labour-> employees -> co-workers-> .......... employees -> labour -> bonded.

Slavery isn't dead. We just stopped recognizing it.

~ Navjot Singh Sohanpal